Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

Covid-19 Coronavirus vaccine in a hospital , conceptual image
Male hand making a Covid 19 sign spelled on wooden blocks.

A study was conducted to find out whether more all-cases of deaths during the first months of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) pandemic in the United States compared with the same months during previous ious years. The study was conducted by Daniel M.Weiberger,phD; Jenny Chen,BS; Ted Cohen, M,DPH; In this study they estimated the burden of all deaths related to Covid-19 in the United States from March to May 2020.

The Novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ( SARS- CoV-2) first emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and rapidly grew in to a Global Pandemic. Questions have been raised about the reported tallies of deaths related to COVID -19 in the United States. Some officials have raised concerns that deaths not caused by the virus were improperly attributed to COVID-19, inflating the reported tolls. However due to the limited availability of the testing and due to the sensitivity of the tests were done, there have likely been a number of deaths caused by the virus that were not counted.

We can get an idea of the mortality burden of the new pathogen. During their study, they have estimated the excess deaths due to any cause in each week of the COVID-19 in different states and evaluate the timing of these increases in relation to the testing and pandemic in tensity. Their analysis provided insights into the burden of COVID-19 in the early months of the outbreak in the United States.

Professional medical worker wearing personal protective equipment testing senior woman for dangerous disease using test stick

Questions have been raised about the reported tallies of deaths related to Covid-19 in the United States. Some officials have raised concerns that deaths not caused by the virus were improperly attributed to Covid-19, inflating the reported tolls. But due to the limited availability of virus testing and the imperfect sensitivity of the test, there have likely been. number of deaths caused by the virus that were not counted.

During their study they have collected the data on the deaths due to pneumonia, influenza, and COVID-19 and on deaths due to all the causes were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system. These numbers were compared with those from the same period of previous years. This data was collected on 12, June, 2020.

The total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020 were approximately 781000, representing 122300 more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95235 reported deaths officially confirmed due to Covid 19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. The number of excess all causes of deaths higher than the official tally of Covid 19 reported deaths during that period.

Excess deaths provide an estimate of the full Covid 19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to virus. To estimate the mortality burden of a new infectious agent when there is a lack of comprehensive testing, it is common to assess increases in rates of death beyond what would be expected if the pathogen had not circulated.

The changes in mortality that occurred during the pandemic varied by state and region. In New York City, all causes mortality rose 7-fold above baseline at the peak of the pandemic.

References:

  1. Estimation of excess Deaths Associated with the Covid-19, http://www.jamanetwork.com

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: